Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
