Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018
This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
