Foreign Office Cautioned Against Armed Intervention to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.